Kimberly Birrell vs Ma YeXin
24 Sept, 03:00 · Round 2 · best of 3 · in 4m
Why 57% for Kimberly Birrell
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Raw model probability 57%, calibrated to 57% for Kimberly Birrell. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
23.9
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
50%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
- Our model
- 43%
- Market
- 34%
- Difference
- 9.3%
2.80
Prices exist, but one player is unrated on this surface, so we are not drawing a comparison.
Betano MX · 1.44 / 2.80 · bookmaker margin of 5.2% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
Underdog keeps it close
Ma YeXin is the market underdog, and our model rates them 9.3% higher than the de-vigged price. On top of that, the margin model gives them a 71% chance of finishing within 4.5 games (or winning outright).
Margin model measured on 2,080 settled matches. We carry no handicap prices yet, so this is a statistical read on how close the match should be — not a priced edge.
What is missing here
- Ma YeXin is unrated on hard: fewer than 5 matches in our history, so his rating here falls back to his overall level. This also blocks any market comparison for this match.
- No ATP ranking found for Ma YeXin, so the ranking input is dropped and the prediction rests on Elo alone.
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1648 vs 1604.