Adrian Mannarino vs Juncheng Shang
24 Sept, 06:30 · Round 1 · best of 3 · in 3h 32m
Why 68% for Adrian Mannarino
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Raw model probability 69%, calibrated to 68% for Adrian Mannarino. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
23.5
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
53%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
🔥 Top model pick- Our model
- 68%
- Market
- 31%
- Difference
- 37.0%
3.05
Our model differs from the market by 37.0% on Adrian Mannarino.
Betano MX · 3.05 / 1.38 · bookmaker margin of 5.3% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
Underdog keeps it close
Adrian Mannarino is the market underdog, and our model rates them 37.0% higher than the de-vigged price. On top of that, the margin model gives them a 82% chance of finishing within 4.5 games (or winning outright).
Margin model measured on 2,080 settled matches. We carry no handicap prices yet, so this is a statistical read on how close the match should be — not a priced edge.
What is missing here
- Juncheng Shang's ATP ranking could not be confirmed against this week's list, so it is used with less confidence.
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1660 vs 1582.