Valentin Royer vs Daniil Medvedev
25 Sept · Time TBC · Round 2 · best of 3
10%
90%
Why 90% for Daniil Medvedev
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Surface Elo (hard)53.1% · +21.8% toward Daniil Medvedev
ATP ranking41.8% · +17.1% toward Daniil Medvedev
Rest and workload5.1% · +2.1% toward Daniil Medvedev
Raw model probability 9%, calibrated to 10% for Valentin Royer. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
22.6
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
69%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
🔥 Top model pick- Our model
- 90%
- Market
- 80%
- Difference
- 10.2%
1.19
Our model differs from the market by 10.2% on Daniil Medvedev.
Betano MX · 4.75 / 1.19 · bookmaker margin of 5.1% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
What is missing here
- Valentin Royer has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
Valentin RoyerDaniil Medvedev
1582hard Elo1943
1595Overall Elo1905
-13hard vs overall+38
2–3hard record4–3
provisionalrating basisrated
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1592 vs 1917.