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hardoutdoor· Eupago Porto Open

Katie Swan vs Valentina Steiner

24 Sept, 13:30 · Round 2 · best of 3 · in 10h 32m

GBRKatie SwanRunranked
54%

Why this is close

Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.

Surface Elo (hard)68.0% · +2.5% toward Katie Swan
Rest and workload32.0% · +1.2% toward Katie Swan

Raw model probability 54%, calibrated to 54% for Katie Swan. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.

Projected total games

24.1

leans over for a best of 3

Straight sets

50%

chance the match ends without a deciding set

Market comparison

No odds available for this event.

Odds coverage is per tournament, and our provider currently carries only the larger events. Without a price there is nothing to compare the model against, so we show the prediction on its own.

What is missing here

  • Katie Swan has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
  • No ATP ranking found for Katie Swan, so the ranking input is dropped and the prediction rests on Elo alone.
  • Valentina Steiner is unrated on hard: fewer than 5 matches in our history, so his rating here falls back to his overall level. This also blocks any market comparison for this match.
  • No ATP ranking found for Valentina Steiner, so the ranking input is dropped and the prediction rests on Elo alone.
Katie SwanValentina Steiner
1603hard Elo1670
1597Overall Elo1571
+6hard vs overall+98
9–7hard record3–0
provisionalrating basisunrated

The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1601 vs 1588.